Burden of cardiometabolic disorders and lifetime risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation among men and women: the Rotterdam Study.

AIMS: To examine the association between the burden of cardiometabolic disorders with new-onset AF and lifetime risk of AF incidence among men and women. METHODS: 4,101 men and 5,421 women free of AF at baseline (1996 to 2008) from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Sex-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between the burden of cardiometabolic disorders and risk of new-onset AF. Remaining lifetime risk for AF was estimated at index ages of 55, 65, and 75 years up to age 108. RESULTS: Mean age at baseline was 65.5 ± 9.4 years. Median follow-up time was 12.8 years. In the fully adjusted model, a stronger association was found between larger burden of cardiometabolic disorders and incident AF among women [hazard ratio (HR): 1.33 and 95% conference interval (CI): 1.22-1.46], compared to men [1.18 (1.08-1.29)] (P for sex-interaction <0.05). The lifetime risk for AF significantly increased with the number of cardiometabolic disorders among both sexes. At an index age of 55 years, the lifetime risks (95% CIs) for AF were 27.1% (20.8-33.4), 26.5% (22.8-30.5), 29.9% (26.7-33.2), 30.8% (25.7-35.8), and 33.3% (23.1-43.6) among men, for 0, 1, 2, 3, and ≥4 comorbid cardiometabolic disorders. Corresponding risks were15.8% (10.5-21.2), 23.0% (19.8-26.2), 29.7% (26.8-32.6), 26.2% (20.8-31.6), and 34.2% (17.3-51.1) among women. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a significant combined impact of cardiometabolic disorders on AF risk, in particular among women. Participants with cardiometabolic multimorbidity had a significantly higher lifetime risk of AF, especially at a young index age.

The present study examined the association between the burden of cardiometabolic disorders with new-onset atrial fibrillation and lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation incidence among 4101 men and 5421 women from the Rotterdam Study cohort. We observed a significant combined impact of cardiometabolic disorders on atrial fibrillation risk, in particular among women. Participants with cardiometabolic multimorbidity had a significantly higher lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation, especially at a young index age. A stronger association was found between larger burden of cardiometabolic disorders and incident atrial fibrillation among women [hazard ratio: 1.33 and 95% conference interval: 1.22-1.46], compared to men [1.18 (1.08-1.29)] (P for sex-interaction <0.05). Among participants aged 55 years or older, the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation was 25.2% among healthy men and 16.3% among healthy women. Individuals with cardiometabolic multimorbidity exhibited a markedly escalated lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation, particularly evident at a younger age.

Circulating metabolites associated with kidney function decline and incident CKD: a multi-platform population-based study.

Background: Investigation of circulating metabolites associated with kidney function and chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk could enhance our understanding of underlying pathways and identify new biomarkers for kidney function. Methods: We selected participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study with data on circulating metabolites and estimated glomerular filtration rate based on serum creatinine (eGFRcreat) available at the same time point. Data on eGFR based on serum cystatin C (eGFRcys) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) were also included. CKD was defined as eGFRcreat <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Data on circulating metabolites (ntotal = 1381) was obtained from the Nightingale and Metabolon platform. Linear regression, linear mixed, and Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses were conducted to study the associations between metabolites and kidney function. We performed bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses to investigate causality of the identified associations. Results: We included 3337 and 1540 participants with data from Nightingale and Metabolon, respectively. A total of 1381 metabolites (243 from Nightingale and 1138 from Metabolon) were included in the analyses. A large number of metabolites were significantly associated with eGFRcreat, eGFRcys, ACR, and CKD, including 16 metabolites that were associated with all four outcomes. Among these, C-glycosyltryptophan (HR 1.50, 95%CI 1.31;1.71) and X-12026 (HR 1.46, 95%CI 1.26;1.68) were most strongly associated with CKD risk. We revealed sex differences in the associations of 11-ketoetiocholanolone glucuronide and 11-beta-glucuronide with the kidney function assessments. No causal associations between the identified metabolites and kidney function were observed. Conclusion: Our study indicates that several circulating metabolites are associated with kidney function which are likely to have potential as biomarkers, rather than as molecules involved in the pathophysiology of kidney function decline.

Electrocardiographic parameters and the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation in the general population: the Rotterdam Study.

AIMS: We aimed to assess the (shape of the) association and sex differences in the link between electrocardiographic parameters and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 12 212 participants free of AF at baseline from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Up to five repeated measurements of electrocardiographic parameters including PR, QRS, QT, QT corrected for heart rate (QTc), JT, RR interval, and heart rate were assessed at baseline and follow-up examinations. Cox proportional hazards- and joint models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to determine the (shape of the) association between baseline and longitudinal electrocardiographic parameters with new-onset AF. Additionally, we evaluated potential sex differences. During a median follow-up of 9.3 years, 1282 incident AF cases occurred among 12 212 participants (mean age 64.9 years, 58.2% women). Penalized cubic splines revealed that associations between baseline electrocardiographic measures and risk of new-onset AF were generally U- and N-shaped. Sex differences in terms of the shape of the various associations were most apparent for baseline PR, QT, QTc, RR interval, and heart rate in relation to new-onset AF. Longitudinal measures of higher PR interval [fully adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.43, 1.02-2.04, P = 0.0393] and higher QTc interval (fully adjusted HR, 95% CI, 5.23, 2.18-12.45, P = 0.0002) were significantly associated with new-onset AF, in particular in men. CONCLUSION: Associations of baseline electrocardiographic measures and risk of new-onset AF were mostly U- and N-shaped. Longitudinal electrocardiographic measures of PR and QTc interval were significantly associated with new-onset AF, in particular among men.

Heart Rate Variability and Incident Type 2 Diabetes in General Population.

CONTEXT: Hyperglycemia and autonomic dysfunction are bidirectionally related. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association of longitudinal evolution of heart rate variability (HRV) with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) among the general population. METHODS: We included 7630 participants (mean age 63.7 years, 58% women) from the population-based Rotterdam Study who had no history of T2D and atrial fibrillation at baseline and had repeated HRV assessments at baseline and during follow-up. We used joint models to assess the association between longitudinal evolution of heart rate and different HRV metrics (including the heart rate-corrected SD of the normal-to-normal RR intervals [SDNNc], and root mean square of successive RR-interval differences [RMSSDc]) with incident T2D. Models were adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors. Bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) using summary-level data was also performed. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.6 years, 871 individuals developed incident T2D. One SD increase in heart rate (hazard ratio [HR] 1.20; 95% CI, 1.09-1.33), and log(RMSSDc) (HR 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.33) were independently associated with incident T2D. The HRs were 1.54 (95% CI, 1.08-2.06) for participants younger than 62 years and 1.15 (95% CI, 1.01-1.31) for those older than 62 years for heart rate (P for interaction <.001). Results from bidirectional MR analyses suggested that HRV and T2D were not significantly related to each other. CONCLUSION: Autonomic dysfunction precedes development of T2D, especially among younger individuals, while MR analysis suggests no causal relationship. More studies are needed to further validate our findings.

Autoimmune diseases and new-onset atrial fibrillation: a UK Biobank study.

AIMS: The underlying mechanisms of atrial fibrillation (AF) are largely unknown. Inflammation may underlie atrial remodelling. Autoimmune diseases, related to increased systemic inflammation, may therefore be associated with new-onset AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants from the population-based UK Biobank were screened for rheumatic fever, gastrointestinal autoimmune diseases, autoimmune diseases targeting the musculoskeletal system and connective tissues, and neurological autoimmune diseases. Between 2006 and 2022, participants were followed for incident AF. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to quantify associations. 494 072 participants free from AF were included (median age 58.0 years, 54.8% women). After a median of 12.8 years, 27 194 (5.5%) participants were diagnosed with new-onset AF. Rheumatic fever without heart involvement (HR, 95% CI: 1.47, 1.26-1.72), Crohn's disease (1.23, 1.05-1.45), ulcerative colitis (1.17, 1.06-1.31), rheumatoid arthritis (1.39, 1.28-1.51), polyarteritis nodosa (1.82, 1.04-3.09), systemic lupus erythematosus (1.82, 1.41-2.35), and systemic sclerosis (2.32, 1.57-3.44) were associated with a larger AF risk. In sex-stratified analyses, rheumatic fever without heart involvement, multiple sclerosis, Crohn's disease, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic and enteropathic arthropathies, systemic sclerosis and ankylosing spondylitis were associated with larger AF risk in women, whereas only men showed a larger AF risk associated with ulcerative colitis. CONCLUSIONS: Various autoimmune diseases are associated with new-onset AF, more distinct in women. Our findings elaborate on the pathophysiological differences in autoimmunity and AF risk between men and women.

The association of coagulation and atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: While atrial fibrillation (AF) is suggested to induce a prothrombotic state, increasing thrombotic risk, it is also hypothesized that coagulation underlies AF onset. However, conclusive evidence is lacking. With this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to summarize and combine the evidence on the associations between coagulation factors with AF in both longitudinal and cross-sectional studies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We systematically searched for longitudinal cohort and cross-sectional studies investigating AF and thrombosis. For longitudinal studies, pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. For cross-sectional studies, we determined pooled standardized mean differences (SMDs) and 95% CIs. A total of 17 longitudinal and 44 cross-sectional studies were included. In longitudinal studies, we found significant associations between fibrinogen (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.10), plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12), and D-dimer (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19) and AF incidence. In cross-sectional studies, we found significantly increased levels of fibrinogen (SMD 0.47, 95% CI 0.20-0,74), von Willebrand factor (SMD 0.96, 95% CI 0.28-1.66), P-selectin (SMD 0.31, 95% CI 0.08-0.54), ß-thromboglobulin (SMD 0.82, 95% CI 0.61-1.04), Platelet Factor 4 (SMD 0.42, 95% CI 0.12-0.7), PAI-1 (1.73, 95% CI 0.26-3.19), and D-dimer (SMD 1.74, 95% CI 0.36-3.11) in AF patients, as opposed to controls. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that higher levels of coagulation factors are associated with prevalent and incident AF. These associations are most pronounced with prevalent AF in cross-sectional studies. Limited evidence from longitudinal studies suggests a prothrombotic state underlying AF development.

Atrial fibrillation patterns and their cardiovascular risk profiles in the general population: the Rotterdam study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines categorize atrial fibrillation (AF) based on the temporality of AF events. Due to its dependence on event duration, this classification is not applicable to population-based cohort settings. We aimed to develop a simple and standardized method to classify AF patterns at population level. Additionally, we compared the longitudinal trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors preceding the AF patterns, and between men and women. METHODS: Between 1990 and 2014, participants from the population-based Rotterdam study were followed for AF status, and categorized into 'single-documented AF episode', 'multiple-documented AF episodes', or 'long-standing persistent AF'. Using repeated measurements we created linear mixed-effects models to assess the longitudinal evolution of risk factors prior to AF diagnosis. RESULTS: We included 14,061 participants (59.1% women, mean age 65.4 ± 10.2 years). After a median follow-up of 9.4 years (interquartile range 8.27), 1,137 (8.1%) participants were categorized as 'single-documented AF episode', 208 (1.5%) as 'multiple-documented AF episodes', and 57 (0.4%) as 'long-standing persistent AF'. In men, we found poorer trajectories of weight and waist circumference preceding 'long-standing persistent AF' as compared to the other patterns. In women, we found worse trajectories of all risk factors between 'long-standing persistent AF' and the other patterns. CONCLUSION: We developed a standardized method to classify AF patterns in the general population. Participants categorized as 'long-standing persistent AF' showed poorer trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors prior to AF diagnosis, as compared to the other patterns. Our findings highlight sex differences in AF pathophysiology and provide insight into possible risk factors of AF patterns.

Heart rate variability and atrial fibrillation in the general population: a longitudinal and Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Sex differences and causality of the association between heart rate variability (HRV) and atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population remain unclear. METHODS: 12,334 participants free of AF from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Measures of HRV including the standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), SDNN corrected for heart rate (SDNNc), RR interval differences (RMSSD), RMSSD corrected for heart rate (RMSSDc), and heart rate were assessed at baseline and follow-up examinations. Joint models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to determine the association between longitudinal measures of HRV with new-onset AF. Genetic variants for HRV were used as instrumental variables in a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary-level data. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 1302 incident AF cases occurred among 12,334 participants (mean age 64.8 years, 58.3% women). In joint models, higher SDNN (fully-adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24, 1.04-1.47, p = 0.0213), and higher RMSSD (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI 1.33, 1.13-1.54, p = 0.0010) were significantly associated with new-onset AF. Sex-stratified analyses showed that the associations were mostly prominent among women. In MR analyses, a genetically determined increase in SDNN (odds ratio (OR), 95% CI 1.60, 1.27-2.02, p = 8.36 × 10-05), and RMSSD (OR, 95% CI 1.56, 1.31-1.86, p = 6.32 × 10-07) were significantly associated with an increased odds of AF. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal measures of uncorrected HRV were significantly associated with new-onset AF, especially among women. MR analyses supported the causal relationship between uncorrected measures of HRV with AF. Our findings indicate that measures to modulate HRV might prevent AF in the general population, in particular in women. AF; atrial fibrillation, GWAS; genome-wide association study, IVW; inverse variance weighted, MR; Mendelian randomization, MR-PRESSO; MR-egger and mendelian randomization pleiotropy residual sum and outlier, RMSSD; root mean square of successive RR interval differences, RMSSDc; root mean square of successive RR interval differences corrected for heart rate, SDNN; standard deviation of normal to normal RR intervals, SDNNc; standard deviation of normal to normal RR intervals corrected for heart rate, WME; weighted median estimator. aRotterdam Study n=12,334 bHRV GWAS n=53,174 cAF GWAS n=1,030,836.

Association Between Sex-Specific Risk Factors and Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation Among Women.

Importance: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia worldwide, with different epidemiological and pathophysiological processes for women vs men and a poorer prognosis for women. Further investigation of sex-specific risk factors associated with AF development in women is warranted. Objective: To investigate the linear and potential nonlinear associations between sex-specific risk factors and the risk of new-onset AF in women. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study obtained data from the 2006 to 2010 UK Biobank study, a cohort of more than 500 000 participants aged 40 to 69 years. Participants were women without AF and history of hysterectomy and/or bilateral oophorectomy at baseline. Median follow-up period for AF onset was 11.6 years, and follow-up ended on October 3, 2020. Exposures: Self-reported, sex-specific risk factors, including age at menarche, history of irregular menstrual cycle, menopause status, age at menopause, years after menopause, age at first live birth, years after last birth, history of spontaneous miscarriages, history of stillbirths, number of live births, and total reproductive years. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was new-onset AF, which was defined by the use of International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision code I48. Results: A total of 235 191 women (mean [SD] age, 55.7 [8.1] years) were included in the present study. During follow-up, 4629 (2.0%) women experienced new-onset AF. In multivariable-adjusted models, history of irregular menstrual cycle was associated with higher AF risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34; 95% CI, 1.01-1.79). Both early menarche (age 7-11 years; HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.00-1.21]) and late menarche (age 13-18 years; HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.00-1.17]) were associated with AF incidence. Early menopause (age 35-44 years; HR, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.10-1.39]) and delayed menopause (age ≥60 years; HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.10-1.78]) were associated with higher risk of AF. Compared with women with 1 to 2 live births, those with 0 live births (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.04-1.24) or 7 or more live births (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.03-2.70) both had significantly higher AF risk. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this study suggest that irregular menstrual cycles, nulliparity, and multiparity were associated with higher risk of new-onset AF among women. The results highlight the importance of taking into account the reproductive history of women in devising screening strategies for AF prevention.

Imaging-based body fat depots and new-onset atrial fibrillation in general population: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a well-established risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). Whether body fat depots differentially associate with AF development remains unknown. METHODS: In the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, body composition was assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and liver and epicardial fat using computed tomography (CT). A body composition score was constructed by adding tertile scores of each fat depot. Principal component analysis was conducted to identify potential body fat distribution patterns. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (HR; 95% CI) per 1-standard deviation increase in corresponding fat depots to enable comparisons. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 9.6 and 8.6 years, 395 (11.4%) and 172 (8.0%) AF cases were ascertained in the DXA and the CT analyses, respectively. After adjustments for cardiovascular risk factors, absolute fat mass (HR; 95% CI 1.33; 1.05-1.68), gynoid fat mass (HR; 95% CI 1.36; 1.12-1.65), epicardial fat mass (HR; 95% CI 1.27; 1.09-1.48), and android-to-gynoid fat ratio (HR; 95% CI 0.81; 0.70-0.94) were independently associated with new-onset AF. After further adjustment for lean mass, associations between fat mass (HR; 95% CI 1.17; 1.04-1.32), gynoid fat mass (HR; 95% CI 1.21; 1.08-1.37), and android-to-gynoid fat ratio (HR; 95% CI 0.84; 0.72-0.97) remained statistically significant. Larger body fat score was associated with a higher AF risk (HR; 95% CI 1.10; 1.02-1.20). Borderline significant association was found between a subcutaneous fat predominant pattern with AF onset (HR; 95% CI 1.21; 0.98-1.49). CONCLUSIONS: Various body fat depots were associated with new-onset AF. Total fat mass and gynoid fat mass were independently associated with AF after adjustment for body size. The inverse association between android-to-gynoid fat ratio with AF presents a novel finding. A significant dose-response relationship between body fat accumulation and AF was observed. Our results underscore the predominant role of subcutaneous fat on AF development among a middle-aged and elderly population. Associations betw2een body fat depots, fat distribution and new-onset atrial fibrillation. ABBREVIATIONS: AF, atrial fibrillation.

Perspectives on Sex- and Gender-Specific Prediction of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation by Leveraging Big Data.

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, has a large impact on quality of life and is associated with increased risk of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality. Over the past two decades advances regarding the clinical epidemiology and management of AF have been established. Moreover, sex differences in the prevalence, incidence, prediction, pathophysiology, and prognosis of AF have been identified. Nevertheless, AF remains to be a complex and heterogeneous disorder and a comprehensive sex- and gender-specific approach to predict new-onset AF is lacking. The exponential growth in various sources of big data such as electrocardiograms, electronic health records, and wearable devices, carries the potential to improve AF risk prediction. Leveraging these big data sources by artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled approaches, in particular in a sex- and gender-specific manner, could lead to substantial advancements in AF prediction and ultimately prevention. We highlight the current status, premise, and potential of big data to improve sex- and gender-specific prediction of new-onset AF.

Longitudinal Anthropometric Measures and Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation Among Community-Dwelling Men and Women.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the sex-specific evolution of various anthropometric measures and the association of their longitudinal trajectories with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: Among 5266 men and 7218 women free of AF at baseline from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, each anthropometric measure was measured 1 to 5 times from 1989 to 2014. Anthropometric measures were standardized to obtain hazard ratios per 1 SD increase to enable comparison. Joint models were used to assess the longitudinal association between anthropometric measures and incident AF. Use of the joint models is a preferred method for simultaneous analyses of repeated measurements and survival data for conferring less biased estimates. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age was 63.9 (8.9) years for men and 64.9 (9.8) years for women. Median follow-up time was 10.5 years. Longitudinal evolution of weight, height, waist circumference, hip circumference, and body mass index was associated with an increased risk of new-onset AF in both men and women. In joint models, larger height in men (hazard ratio [95% credible interval] per 1 SD, 1.27 [1.17 to 1.38]) and weight in women (1.24 [1.16 to 1.34]) showed the largest associations with AF. In joint models, waist to hip ratio was significantly associated with incident AF only in women (1.10 [1.03 to 1.18]). CONCLUSION: Considering the entire longitudinal trajectories in joint models, anthropometric measures were positively associated with an increased risk for new-onset AF among men and women in the general population. Increase in measure of central obesity showed a stronger association with increased risk of AF onset among women compared with men.

Sex-specific anthropometric and blood pressure trajectories and risk of incident atrial fibrillation: the Rotterdam Study.

AIMS: To investigate sex-specific longitudinal trajectories of various obesity-related measures and blood pressure at the population level and further assess the impact of these trajectories on new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants with ≥2 repeated assessments for various risk factors from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Latent class linear mixed models were fitted to identify the potential classes. Cox proportional-hazard models were used to assess the association between risk factors' trajectories and the risk of new-onset AF, with the most favourable trajectory as reference. Among 7367 participants (mean baseline age: 73 years, 58.8% women), after a median follow-up time of 8.9 years (interquartile range: 5.3-10.4), 769 (11.4%) participants developed new-onset AF. After adjustments for cardiovascular risk factors, persistent-increasing body mass index (BMI) trajectory carried a higher risk for AF [hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval: (1.39; 1.05-1.85) in men and (1.60; 1.19-2.15) in women], compared with the lower-and-stable BMI trajectory. Trajectories of elevated-and-stable waist circumference (WC) in women (1.53; 1.09-2.15) and elevated-and-stable hip circumference (HC) in men (1.83; 1.11-3.03) were associated with incident AF. For systolic blood pressure (SBP), the initially hypertensive trajectory carried the largest risk for AF among women (1.79; 1.21-2.65) and men (1.82; 1.13-2.95). Diastolic blood pressure trajectories were significantly associated with AF risk among women but not among men. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal trajectories of weight, BMI, WC, HC, and SBP were associated with new-onset AF in both men and women. Diastolic blood pressure trajectories were additionally associated with AF in women. Our results highlight the importance of assessing long-term exposure to risk factors for AF prevention among men and women.

Bidirectional Association Between Kidney Function and Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Background Consensus lacks concerning a bidirectional association between kidney function and atrial fibrillation (AF), but this is crucial information for prevention/treatment efforts for both chronic kidney disease and AF. Therefore, we investigated the bidirectional association between kidney function and AF. Methods and Results This study was a prospective cohort study including 9228 participants (mean age, 64.9 years; 57.2% women) with information on kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] based on serum creatinine [eGFRcreat], cystatin C [eGFRcys], or both [eGFRcreat-cys], and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio) and AF. Reduced kidney function was defined as eGFRcreat <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2. Cox proportional-hazards, logistic regression, linear mixed, and joint models were used to investigate the association of kidney function with AF and vice versa. During follow-up (median of 8.0 years), 780 events of incident AF occurred. Lower eGFRcys and eGFRcreat-cys were associated with increased AF risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08 [95% CI, 1.03-1.14] and HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01-1.14], respectively, per 10 mL/min per 1.73 m2 eGFR decrease). For eGFRcys and eGFRcreat-cys, 10-year cumulative incidence of AF was 16% (eGFR <60) and 6% (eGFR ≥60). Prevalent AF (versus no prevalent AF) was associated with 2.85 mL/min per 1.73 m2 lower eGFRcreat and with a faster decline of eGFRcreat with age. Prevalent AF was associated with a 1.3-fold increased risk of incident reduced kidney function. Conclusions Kidney function, especially eGFRcys, and AF are bidirectionally associated. There are currently no targeted prevention efforts for AF in patients with mild chronic kidney disease and vice versa. Our results could provide the first step to improve prediction/prevention of both conditions.

Disentangling the association between kidney function and atrial fibrillation: a bidirectional Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: The potential bidirectional causal association between kidney function and atrial fibrillation (AF) remains unclear. METHODS: We conducted a bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. From multiple genome-wide association studies (GWAS), we retrieved genetic variants associated with kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate based on creatinine (eGFRcreat), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), chronic kidney disease (CKD stage ≥G3): n = 1,045,620, eGFR based on cystatin C: n = 24,063-32,861, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), and microalbuminuria: n = 564,257), and AF (n = 1,030,836). The inverse-variance weighted method was used as our main analysis. RESULTS: MR analyses supported a causal effect of CKD (n = 9 SNPs, odds ratio (OR): 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-1.17, p-value = 1.97 × 10-03), and microalbuminuria (n = 5 SNPs, OR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.10-1.46, p-value = 1.38 × 10-03) on AF risk. We also observed a causal effect of AF on eGFRcreat (n = 97 SNPs, OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00-1.00, p-value = 6.78 × 10-03), CKD (n = 107 SNPs, OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.03-1.09, p-value = 2.97 × 10-04), microalbuminuria (n = 83 SNPs, OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.09, p-value = 2.49 × 10-08), and a suggestive causal effect on eGFRcys (n = 103 SNPs, OR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.99-1.00, p-value = 4.61 × 10-02). Sensitivity analyses, including weighted median estimator, MR-Egger, the MR pleiotropy residual sum and outlier test, and excluding genetic variants associated with possible confounders and/or horizontal mediators (myocardial infarction/coronary artery disease, heart failure) indicated that these findings were robust. CONCLUSIONS: Our results supported a bidirectional causal association between kidney function and AF. The shared genetic architecture between kidney dysfunction and AF might represent potential important therapeutic targets to prevent both conditions in the general population.

Heart rate variability is associated with left ventricular systolic, diastolic function and incident heart failure in the general population.

BACKGROUND: HRV has mostly shown associations with systolic dysfunction and more recently, with diastolic dysfunction in Heart failure (HF) patients. But the role of sympathetic nervous system in changes of left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function and new-onset HF has not been extensively studied. METHODS: Among 3157 men and 4405 women free of HF and atrial fibrillation retrospectively included from the population-based Rotterdam Study, we used linear mixed models to examine associations of RR-interval differences and standard deviation of RR-intervals corrected for heart rate (RMSSDc and SDNNc) with longitudinal changes of LV ejection fraction (LVEF), E/A ratio, left atrial (LA) diameter, E/e' ratio. Afterwards, using cox regressions, we examined their association with new-onset HF. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age was 65 (9.95) in men and 65.7 (10.2) in women. Every unit increase in log RMSSDc was accompanied by 0.75% (95%CI:-1.11%;-0.39%) and 0.31% (- 0.60%;-0.01%) lower LVEF among men and women each year, respectively. Higher log RMSSDc was linked to 0.03 (- 0.04;-0.01) and 0.02 (- 0.03;-0.003) lower E/A and also - 1.76 (- 2.77;- 0.75) and - 1.18 (- 1.99;-0.38) lower LVM index in both sexes and 0.72 mm (95% CI: - 1.20;-0.25) smaller LA diameters in women. The associations with LVEF in women diminished after excluding HF cases during the first 3 years of follow-up. During a median follow-up of 8.7 years, hazard ratios (95%CI) for incident HF were 1.34 (1.08;1.65) for log RMSSDc in men and 1.15 (0.93;1.42) in women. SDNNc showed similar associations. CONCLUSIONS: Indices of HRV were associated with worse systolic function in men but mainly with improvement in LA size in women. Higher HRV was associated with higher risk of new-onset HF in men. Our findings highlight potential sex differences in autonomic function underlying cardiac dysfunction and heart failure in the general population.

Subclinical Measures of Peripheral Atherosclerosis and the Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in the General Population: the Rotterdam Study.

Background Limited population-based data on the (sex-specific) link between subclinical measures of peripheral atherosclerosis and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) exist. Methods and Results Subclinical measures of peripheral atherosclerosis including carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), carotid plaque, and ankle-brachial index (ABI) were assessed at baseline and follow-up examinations. A total of 12 840 participants free of AF at baseline from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. Cox proportional hazards models and joint models, adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, were used to determine the associations between baseline and longitudinal measures of cIMT, carotid plaque, and ABI with new-onset AF. During a median follow-up of 9.2 years, 1360 incident AF cases occurred among 12 840 participants (mean age 65.2 years, 58.3% women). Higher baseline cIMT (fully-adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 95% CI, 1.81, 1.21-2.71; P=0.0042), presence of carotid plaque (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI, 1.19, 1.04-1.35; P=0.0089), lower ABI (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI, 1.57, 1.14-2.18; P=0.0061) and longitudinal measures of higher cIMT (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI, 2.14, 1.38-3.29; P=0.0021), presence of carotid plaque (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI, 1.61, 1.12-2.43; P=0.0112), and lower ABI (fully-adjusted HR, 95% CI, 4.43, 1.83-10.49; P=0.0007) showed significant associations with new-onset AF in the general population. Sex-stratified analyses showed that the associations for cIMT, carotid plaque, and ABI were mostly prominent among women. Conclusions Baseline and longitudinal subclinical measures of peripheral atherosclerosis (carotid atherosclerosis, and lower extremity peripheral atherosclerosis) were significantly associated with an increased risk of new-onset AF, especially among women. Registration URL: https://www.trialregister.nl, https://www.apps.who.int/trialsearch/; Unique identifier: NL6645/NTR6831.

Immunothrombosis and new-onset atrial fibrillation in the general population: the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common age-related cardiac arrhythmia. The etiology underlying AF is still largely unknown. At the intersection of the innate immune system and hemostasis, immunothrombosis may be a possible cause of atrial remodeling, and therefore be an underlying cause of AF. METHODS: From 1990 to 2014, we followed participants aged 55 and over, free from AF at inclusion. Immunothrombosis factors fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor, ADAMTS13, and neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) levels were measured at baseline. Participants were followed until either onset of AF, loss-to-follow-up, or reaching the end-date of 01-01-2014. Cox proportional hazard modelling was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: We followed 6174 participants (mean age 69.1 years, 57% women) for a median follow-up time of 12.8 years. 364 men (13.7%, incidence rate 13.0/1000 person-years) and 365 women (10.4%, incidence rate 8.9/1000 person-years) developed AF. We found no significant association between markers of immunothrombosis and new-onset AF after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors [HR 1.00 (95% CI 0.93-1.08) for fibrinogen, 1.04 (0.97-1.12) for von Willebrand factor, 1.00 (1.00-1.01) for ADAMTS13, and 1.01 (0.94-1.09) for NETs]. In addition, we found no differences in associations between men and women. CONCLUSION: We found no associations between markers of immunothrombosis and new-onset AF in the general population. Inflammation and immunothrombosis may be associated with AF through other cardiovascular risk factors or predisposing conditions of AF. Our findings challenge the added value of biomarkers in AF risk prediction.

Design, implementation and initial findings of COVID-19 research in the Rotterdam Study: leveraging existing infrastructure for population-based investigations on an emerging disease.

The Rotterdam Study is an ongoing prospective, population-based cohort study that started in 1989 in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The study aims to unravel etiology, preclinical course, natural history and potential targets for intervention for chronic diseases in mid-life and late-life. It focuses on cardiovascular, endocrine, hepatic, neurological, ophthalmic, psychiatric, dermatological, otolaryngological, locomotor, and respiratory diseases. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a substudy was designed and embedded within the Rotterdam Study. On the 20th of April, 2020, all living non-institutionalized participants of the Rotterdam Study (n = 8732) were invited to participate in this sub-study by filling out a series of questionnaires administered over a period of 8 months. These questionnaires included questions on COVID-19 related symptoms and risk factors, characterization of lifestyle and mental health changes, and determination of health care seeking and health care avoiding behavior during the pandemic. As of May 2021, the questionnaire had been sent out repeatedly for a total of six times with an overall response rate of 76%. This article provides an overview of the rationale, design, and implementation of this sub-study nested within the Rotterdam Study. Finally, initial results on participant characteristics and prevalence of COVID-19 in this community-dwelling population are shown.

Circulatory MicroRNAs in Plasma and Atrial Fibrillation in the General Population: The Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: MicroRNAs (miRNAs), small non-coding RNAs regulating gene expression, have been shown to play an important role in cardiovascular disease. However, limited population-based data regarding the relationship between circulatory miRNAs in plasma and atrial fibrillation (AF) exist. Moreover, it remains unclear if the relationship differs by sex. We therefore aimed to determine the (sex-specific) association between plasma circulatory miRNAs and AF at the population level. METHODS: Plasma levels of miRNAs were measured using a targeted next-generation sequencing method in 1999 participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the associations of 591 well-expressed miRNAs with the prevalence and incidence of AF. Models were adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors. We further examined the link between predicted target genes of the identified miRNAs. RESULTS: The mean age was 71.7 years (57.1% women), 98 participants (58 men and 40 women) had prevalent AF at baseline. Moreover, 196 participants (96 men and 100 women) developed AF during a median follow-up of 9.0 years. After adjusting for multiple testing, miR-4798-3p was significantly associated with the odds of prevalent AF among men (odds ratio, 95% confidence interval, 0.39, 0.24-0.66, p-value = 0.000248). No miRNAs were significantly associated with incident AF. MiR-4798-3p could potentially regulate the expression of a number of AF-related genes, including genes involved in calcium and potassium handling in myocytes, protection of cells against oxidative stress, and cardiac fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma levels of miR-4798-3p were significantly associated with the odds of prevalent AF among men. Several target genes in relation to AF pathophysiology could potentially be regulated by miR-4798-3p that warrant further investigations in future experimental studies.